The presidential-results-by-congressional-district crowdsourcing project at Swing State Project just keeps rolling along, and we’re really getting close to total completion. We’re adding 31 more districts today, having scored precinct-level data from some of the largest counties still outstanding (most notably, Queens County, NY, and Wayne County, MI). That leaves only 18 districts with problem counties left to go! (Nassau and Erie Counties, we’re lookin’ at you…)
As always, big thanks to all SSP readers who’ve contributed to this project, with extra thanks for this batch to Democratic Luntz and jeffmd, who rocks an Excel pivot table like nobody’s business. If you want to see a handy list of all districts in one place, look here. If you want a fuller picture, waves one, two, three, and four are here. And if you want an absolutely crushing level of detail, just click on our master database and then on a particular state to see each district in all its precinct-level glory.
| District | Obama # | McCain # | Other # | 2008 % | 2004 % | 2000 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-11 | 169,183 | 139,863 | 5,495 | 53.8/44.5 | 45/54 | 45/53 |
| CA-14 | 213,671 | 72,707 | 5,883 | 73.1/24.9 | 68/30 | 62/34 |
| CA-15 | 174,571 | 75,753 | 4,837 | 68.4/29.7 | 63/36 | 60/36 |
| CA-16 | 154,324 | 63,975 | 3,585 | 69.6/28.8 | 63/36 | 64/33 |
| CA-18 | 104,299 | 68,629 | 3,141 | 59.2/39.0 | 49/50 | 53/44 |
| CA-19 | 124,533 | 141,013 | 4,990 | 46.0/52.1 | 38/61 | 39/58 |
| CA-20 | 77,158 | 50,146 | 2,257 | 59.6/38.7 | 51/48 | 55/44 |
| CA-21 | 93,578 | 125,293 | 3,591 | 42.1/56.3 | 34/65 | 37/61 |
| CA-23 | 172,348 | 85,261 | 6,312 | 65.3/32.3 | 58/40 | 54/40 |
| CA-24 | 160,738 | 151,678 | 5,916 | 50.5/47.7 | 43/56 | 43/54 |
| IN-06 | 133,459 | 151,596 | 3,933 | 46.2/52.5 | 35/64 | 40/59 |
| MI-11 | 196,909 | 163,190 | 6,075 | 53.8/44.6 | 47/53 | 47/51 |
| MI-12 | 212,850 | 108,752 | 5,626 | 65.1/33.2 | 61/39 | 61/37 |
| MI-13 | 167,242 | 32,722 | 1,763 | 82.9/16.2 | 81/19 | 80/19 |
| MI-14 | 189,406 | 33,533 | 1,906 | 84.2/14.9 | 83/17 | 81/18 |
| MI-15 | 219,674 | 106,322 | 5,680 | 66.2/32.1 | 62/38 | 60/38 |
| NJ-01 | 198,196 | 103,992 | 3,687 | 64.8/34.0 | 61/39 | 63/34 |
| NJ-02 | 165,983 | 137,448 | 3,967 | 54.0/44.7 | 49/50 | 54/43 |
| NJ-04 | 150,975 | 169,848 | 3,914 | 46.5/52.3 | 44/56 | 50/46 |
| NJ-12 | 198,145 | 139,367 | 3,575 | 58.1/40.9 | 54/46 | 56/40 |
| NY-06 | 185,890 | 22,302 | 598 | 89.0/10.7 | 84/15 | 87/11 |
| NY-07 | 148,242 | 38,170 | 943 | 79.1/20.4 | 74/25 | 75/21 |
| NY-09 | 111,237 | 88,307 | 1,533 | 55.3/43.9 | 56/44 | 67/30 |
| NY-12 | 154,394 | 23,504 | 1,283 | 86.2/13.1 | 80/19 | 77/15 |
| NY-14 | 212,802 | 56,946 | 2,402 | 78.2/20.9 | 74/25 | 70/23 |
| OH-06 | 142,474 | 150,551 | 6,268 | 47.6/50.3 | 49/51 | 47/49 |
| OH-13 | 183,254 | 136,316 | 4,640 | 56.5/42.1 | 56/44 | 53/44 |
| OH-16 | 152,509 | 160,914 | 6,355 | 47.7/50.3 | 46/54 | 42/53 |
| OH-17 | 179,531 | 104,773 | 6,011 | 61.8/36.1 | 63/37 | 60/35 |
| TX-15 | 100,398 | 66,501 | 922 | 59.8/39.6 | 49/51 | 54/46 |
| TX-27 | 97,830 | 84,366 | 1,283 | 53.3/46.0 | 45/55 | 50/50 |
So what are the highlights and lowlights for this installment? As we’ve seen earlier, California just went from dark blue to even bluer, and that seeped all the way down to some of its reliably red districts (CA-24 in Ventura County went narrowly for Obama… which hopefully will convince Elton Gallegly of the many botched retirement attempts to actually get off the pot this time… and we even came close in CA-19, which stitches together the Sierras and the whiter parts of the Central Valley). A lot of that movement may have to do with California’s huge Latino population, fed up with the GOP’s increasing reliance on immigrant-bashing; parallel movement is seen in Texas, where two mostly-Latino districts (TX-15 and TX-27) also show wide swings in the Democratic direction.
Also, as we’ve seen in other districts, Indiana had some of the biggest Democratic swings in the nation, simply by virtue of the Democrats showing up and competing there for once. Check out IN-06. Remember, this is the district represented by Mike Pence, arch-wingnut who just got promoted from leading the RSC to the #3 position in the whole GOP caucus… and now he’s in a district that McCain won by just 6 points.
On the bad side of the ledger, we’re seeing continued declines in some of the blue-collar white-ethnic districts in the NYC area. These districts suffered some of the biggest declines in that nation from Gore to Kerry, and I thought that might be a temporary 9/11 effect since those districts were some of the ones hardest hit. However, we’ve continued to lose ground in NY-09 (the old-school parts of Brookyln and Queens), and are stagnant in NJ-04 (Ocean and Monmouth Counties, where people from NY-09 go to retire). Not that it matters too much; these districts are outweighed by the overall blue trends in these already-blue states. And in NY-09 they still managed to kick out state senator Serphin Maltese to finally flip control of the New York senate; Obama’s performance may have to do more with 2008-specific racism/latent PUMAism than an overall trend.
Also troubling is what’s going on in eastern Ohio, where we lost ground in OH-06 and OH-17. It’s not hard to explain — OH-06 is considered the Appalachian part of Ohio, while OH-17 is centered on Youngstown, a place similar to Pittsburgh’s collar counties where the once-strong union base is dying off or drifting away as the manufacturing sector evaporates. This is more worrisome since Ohio is a swing state where every vote counts, but as this part of the state is hollowing out while the Columbus and Cincinnati areas are starting to move into our column, it’s not a killer.
Finally, I’m making good on my promise of some updates, based on further refining of early-vote or split-precinct data, or finding more data from small counties where we’d previously made a “close enough” judgment. As you’ll see, the numbers haven’t moved that much, with a few exceptions (perhaps most significantly in IL-18, which we originally thought Obama had won by a few thousand votes but turns out he lost by a few hundred; see also improvements in FL-06 and FL-07, SC-01 and SC-06). This will only be of interest to people who are real sticklers for accuracy or who are keeping their own spreadsheets on this subject. (Of course, since we’re talking about Swing State Project here, that probably describes most of our readership!) The updates tables is over the flip…
| District | Obama # | McCain # | Other # | Updated % | What we’d said |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-01 | 112,793 | 234,185 | 4,349 | 32.1/66.7 | 32.2/66.7 |
| FL-02 | 163,954 | 199,591 | 4,207 | 44.6/54.3 | 44.7/54.3 |
| FL-03 | 169,406 | 60,062 | 1,636 | 73.3/26.0 | 73.0/26.4 |
| FL-04 | 143,324 | 233,446 | 3,765 | 37.7/61.4 | 37.6/61.5 |
| FL-06 | 174,701 | 228,651 | 4,662 | 42.8/56.0 | 38.4/60.6 |
| FL-07 | 183,619 | 213,831 | 4,516 | 45.7/53.2 | 42.0/57.0 |
| FL-08 | 189,402 | 168,842 | 2,742 | 52.5/46.8 | 52.4/46.8 |
| FL-11 | 178,935 | 89,793 | 2,691 | 65.9/33.1 | 65.7/33.3 |
| FL-12 | 163,745 | 168,399 | 3,112 | 48.8/50.2 | 47.7/51.3 |
| FL-13 | 178,967 | 199,216 | 4,525 | 46.8/52.1 | 46.7/52.3 |
| FL-14 | 169,067 | 226,967 | 3,827 | 42.3/56.8 | 42.3/56.9 |
| FL-15 | 186,597 | 200,229 | 4,638 | 47.7/51.2 | 46.9/52.0 |
| FL-16 | 175,017 | 192,431 | 4,038 | 47.1/51.8 | 47.2/51.8 |
| FL-23 | 194,488 | 39,578 | 1,152 | 82.7/16.8 | 82.8/16.7 |
| FL-24 | 189,895 | 197,541 | 3,937 | 48.5/50.5 | 47.3/51.7 |
| FL-25 | 127,290 | 129,940 | 1,382 | 49.2/50.3 | 49.3/50.2 |
| IL-08 | 167,812 | 129,030 | 4,208 | 55.7/42.9 | 56.6/42.1 |
| IL-11 | 175,033 | 147,758 | 5,059 | 53.4/45.1 | 53.6/44.9 |
| IL-14 | 168,611 | 132,838 | 4,298 | 55.2/43.5 | 54.4/44.2 |
| IL-15 | 143,659 | 151,477 | 5,264 | 47.8/50.4 | 48.8/49.4 |
| IL-17 | 149,220 | 112,197 | 3,837 | 56.3/42.3 | 58.1/40.4 |
| IL-18 | 143,140 | 143,551 | 4,823 | 49.1/49.2 | 49.6/48.7 |
| IL-19 | 139,335 | 171,883 | 5,616 | 44.0/54.3 | 42.0/56.2 |
| IN-04 | 142,930 | 185,843 | 3,557 | 43.0/55.9 | 43.0/55.9 |
| IN-08 | 140,063 | 151,570 | 3,727 | 47.4/51.3 | 47.4/51.3 |
| IN-09 | 154,628 | 160,248 | 3,930 | 48.5/50.3 | 49.1/49.7 |
| KS-02 | 134,337 | 170,635 | 6,013 | 43.2/54.9 | 43.1/54.9 |
| KS-03 | 187,372 | 177,814 | 5,186 | 50.6/48.0 | 50.6/48.1 |
| LA-01 | 78,325 | 221,781 | 4,868 | 25.7/72.7 | 25.3/73.1 |
| LA-02 | 137,748 | 46,205 | 1,873 | 74.1/24.9 | 74.3/24.7 |
| LA-03 | 101,428 | 167,046 | 5,411 | 37.0/61.0 | 36.6/61.4 |
| LA-04 | 108,273 | 162,198 | 3,152 | 39.6/59.3 | 39.6/59.3 |
| LA-05 | 106,097 | 177,277 | 3,718 | 37.0/61.8 | 36.7/62.0 |
| LA-06 | 132,556 | 184,422 | 4,297 | 41.3/57.4 | 41.4/57.3 |
| LA-07 | 105,117 | 188,576 | 4,953 | 35.2/63.1 | 35.0/63.4 |
| MA-01 | 195,983 | 102,450 | 6,984 | 64.2/33.5 | 66.0/34.0 |
| MA-02 | 178,090 | 117,272 | 6,269 | 59.0/38.9 | 60.3/39.7 |
| MA-05 | 175,986 | 117,710 | 4,968 | 58.9/39.4 | 59.9/40.1 |
| MA-06 | 192,502 | 135,956 | 5,474 | 57.7/40.7 | 58.6/41.4 |
| MA-07 | 189,228 | 97,123 | 4,948 | 65.0/33.3 | 66.1/33.9 |
| MA-08 | 202,152 | 32,445 | 1,612 | 85.6/13.7 | 86.1/13.9 |
| MA-09 | 188,863 | 120,436 | 3,545 | 60.4/38.5 | 61.2/38.8 |
| MA-10 | 196,304 | 155,992 | 5,461 | 54.9/43.6 | 55.8/44.2 |
| MD-01 | 147,543 | 215,918 | 7,136 | 39.8/58.3 | 39.8/58.3 |
| MD-02 | 178,241 | 113,929 | 5,684 | 59.8/38.3 | 59.6/38.5 |
| MD-03 | 192,690 | 128,593 | 6,523 | 58.8/39.2 | 58.6/39.5 |
| MD-04 | 270,377 | 45,014 | 2,486 | 85.1/14.2 | 85.1/14.1 |
| MD-05 | 233,917 | 119,020 | 4,520 | 65.4/33.3 | 64.9/33.9 |
| MD-06 | 139,744 | 200,475 | 7,528 | 40.2/57.7 | 40.2/57.7 |
| MD-07 | 234,422 | 59,183 | 3,929 | 78.8/19.9 | 78.7/20.0 |
| MD-08 | 232,533 | 77,730 | 4,461 | 73.9/24.7 | 73.4/25.2 |
| MO-08 | 101,889 | 173,128 | 4,651 | 36.4/61.9 | 36.3/62.1 |
| OH-18 | 115,868 | 132,972 | 6,226 | 45.4/52.1 | 45.5/52.0 |
| OR-02 | 154,848 | 193,002 | 10,473 | 43.2/53.9 | 43.3/53.7 |
| OR-04 | 201,143 | 161,079 | 11,698 | 53.8/43.1 | 53.7/43.2 |
| PA-02 | 298,834 | 31,584 | 1,435 | 90.1/9.5 | 90.7/8.9 |
| PA-08 | 192,570 | 160,695 | 3,905 | 53.9/45.0 | 53.6/45.3 |
| PA-15 | 179,589 | 139,396 | 4,158 | 55.6/43.1 | 56.3/42.4 |
| SC-01 | 146,919 | 196,389 | 4,298 | 42.3/56.5 | 39.9/58.8 |
| SC-02 | 159,063 | 189,949 | 3,567 | 45.1/53.9 | 43.2/55.8 |
| SC-03 | 103,434 | 188,316 | 3,803 | 35.0/63.7 | 34.4/64.3 |
| SC-04 | 119,259 | 190,113 | 5,254 | 37.9/60.4 | 37.9/60.4 |
| SC-05 | 144,267 | 167,072 | 3,635 | 45.8/53.0 | 45.2/53.7 |
| SC-06 | 189,507 | 103,057 | 2,829 | 64.2/34.9 | 61.9/37.1 |
| TX-01 | 81,872 | 184,963 | 1,433 | 30.5/69.0 | 30.5/68.8 |
| TX-04 | 93,316 | 213,565 | 2,262 | 30.2/69.1 | 30.1/68.9 |
| TX-06 | 114,283 | 172,535 | 1,870 | 39.6/59.8 | 39.7/59.5 |
| TX-08 | 74,545 | 215,377 | 2,058 | 25.5/73.8 | 25.4/73.8 |
| TX-10 | 150,713 | 187,496 | 2,941 | 44.2/55.0 | 44.3/54.6 |
| TX-11 | 58,275 | 184,814 | 1,915 | 23.8/75.4 | 23.6/75.4 |
| TX-13 | 53,860 | 181,541 | 1,786 | 22.7/76.5 | 22.9/76.2 |
| TX-17 | 82,326 | 172,822 | 1,992 | 32.0/67.2 | 31.8/67.3 |
| TX-19 | 65,020 | 170,969 | 1,693 | 27.4/71.9 | 27.4/71.8 |
| TX-23 | 124,716 | 117,817 | 1,630 | 51.1/48.3 | 50.9/48.1 |
| TX-26 | 137,613 | 193,132 | 2,213 | 41.3/58.0 | 41.8/57.3 |
| TX-31 | 124,608 | 172,570 | 2,879 | 41.5/57.5 | 41.5/57.3 |
This is my district. PUMA was a huge issue in this district, but I don’t think Hillary Clinton would have broken 60% either. Remember that this was a Republican district on the presidential level before 1992. I believe from 1964-1988 it voted Republican…so after the Clinton/Gore honeymoon, we reverted back to where we were. Look at the turnout though, it was REALLY love. 88,000 Republican votes is roughly what Bush got in 2000. Democratic voters just didn’t vote for President. I saw this to be true at the Joe Addabbo victory party…many there didn’t vote for President or voted for McCain.
Addabbo’s victory was big, but in the district, Obama did better than Kerry in Queens, worse than him in Brooklyn, so the Queens-side is not where the problem is, it’s Brooklyn. The Brooklyn side of the district has more in common with NY-13 than the rest of the city.
Anyway Republicans will probably win Addabbo’s NYC council seat, but that’s more because of shenanigans than a trend. A Democratic candidate got the frontrunning Democratic candidate knocked off the ballot on a technicality. We also did with another city council seat in Queens-NY-09 in November that had been long held by Republicans.
I think 55%-45% is roughly where NY-09 is and it’s going to take a New Yorker or a Lieberman to win more votes here. This is a “bomb Iran” Democratic district.
BTW, I don’t think this district has voted Democrat for mayor since 1985.
MI-11: McCotter, meet rock. Time to sink.
Looks like about 18 CDs left. I’m looking forward to MO-9, NY-26, NY-3, IN-2, and CO-6.
Looks to me like Obama matched Kerry and Gore’s performance. If I recall the county results correctly, he won Mahoning County 62-36 and Trumbull County 59-39. If that’s lower than what Kerry and Gore got, there’s a very simple reason: he’s black. Y-town is not the most enlightened area when it comes to racial politics. I actually thought McCain would do better than he did.
I wouldn’t worry about this being a longterm trend. The Mahoning Valley GOP is nonexistent. However, the Dems desperately need a good housecleaning.
Ive only gotten to the NY numbers so far on this list and pretty good for Obama, as expected. But Im a little surprised at NY-9 (Anthony Weiner’s district). It went for Gore by 37 and Kerry by 12 but it only went for Obama by around 11 or 12. Despite Obama winning NY state, as a whole, by roughly 27% as compared to Kerry’s roughly 18%. And Gore won around the same as Obama in NY state. I know this is just one district and shouldnt be concentrating on this but its hard not to when its so different from everything else. And its very blue results in 2000.
78%-21% for Obama. Its Maloney’s district and that is who Paterson should have picked for the Senate seat. We would have held that seat easily.
And it is even nicer to see CA-11 and CA-24 turned blue!
I’m from central NJ. I lived in NJ-04 briefly. Seriously, how do the Dems win it back?